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July 21, 2006
The Limits of Intelligence
Throughout history, armies have been continually dismayed by how much of what they think they know is simply utterly wrong. Just in recent times, consider our intelligence on Iraq's weapons programs and force deployments, twice, North Korea's nuclear programs, and now, how well-armed and well dug-in Hizb'allah is. And yet, somehow, our policy makers and journalists keep acting as if we have (or anyone has) perfect, infallible intelligence. Now, keeping that in mind, how far is Iran really from developing nuclear weapons? The intelligence agencies all seem to agree, from politicians' statements and news reports based on leaked information, that the timeline is two years or more. Most lefty blogs that I've seen talk about it assume ten years or more. But what do we really know?
The answer could be critical when Israel goes into Lebanon.
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