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July 22, 2006

Examining Israel's Gound Campaign

There has been a lot of punditry and analysis about the Israeli campaign in Lebanon, and with the likely imminent start of a major ground campaign, I was looking for an analysis of what form the attack might take. Finding none, I've decided to do it myself. The military uses an analysis framework known as METT-T: Mission, Enemy, Terrain, Troops, Time. The analysis is from Israel's point of view, since Israel will have the initiative.

Mission

Israel has several major and minor goals. How they prioritize them is unclear, but the goals themselves are pretty obvious. These include: stopping the shelling of Israeli cities for the long term; removing Hizb'allah from the border and from rocket range of Israel; degrading or destroying Hizb'allah's fighters and leadership, as well as their arsenal; cutting off or weakening Iran's and especially Syria's influence in Lebanon; recapturing the two soldiers whose capture started the current conflict (more a morale and propaganda goal than a military goal); preventing the widening of the war to Syria and/or Iran. Some of these goals can simply not be obtained without troops on the ground for an extended period. For example, Hizb'allah has hidden significant weaponry in tunnels that are not visible except close up — you cannot find them from the air. Without destroying those tunnels, Israel will be back in the same position they are now within just a few months.

Enemy

There are two immediate enemies or potential enemies in Lebanon: Hizb'allah and the Lebanese army. In addition, Israel must be immediately concerned with how Hamas and the Syrian military. In an extreme case, Israel has to be concerned with what Iran might do.

Hizb'allah is the major enemy, of course, and it should not be underestimated. Hizb'allah has about 6000 full-time fighters, who are probably among the best Arab light forces in the world. A few days ago, they forced the Golani Brigade — well, a portion of it, actually — to withdraw under fire. That is no small feat, even if the Israeli intention at that time was reconnaissance, as it likely was. (On a reconnaissance mission, you don't want to engage decisively, because you want information, not a kinetic fight.) These are most likely concentrated on the Israeli border to engage the Israeli ground troops as they come across, then stage a fighting withdrawal.

In addition to this, Hizb'allah can probably call on up to 30000 additional fighters, of varying levels of training and with varying equipment. Hizb'allah's greatest weaknesses are lack of mobility and lack of air assets.

In addition to the rockets, anti-ship missiles and small arms that have been in evidence, Hizb'allah has mortars, artillery, RPGs and heavy anti-tank missiles. They are a formidable force.

The Lebanese army is basically a non-factor in operational terms. There are about 40000 troops, but they are lightly armed and badly trained. (This is also one reason why they have not taken on Hizb'allah for control of the South.) They have said that they would fight alongside Hizb'allah if the Israelis invade, but they would be quickly crushed if they did so.

A more pressing problem for Israel is that the Palestinians could cause trouble. In Gaza, that's not a problem, because the Israelis are already fighting there (though that fighting does tie down Israeli troops). In the West Bank, however, any fighting would mean more Israeli troops would be diverted and unavailable for the northern front. This would not be a serious threat to the Israeli plans, but it could be significant if the Syrians intervene.

The Syrians probably wouldn't intervene. While Syria has a large military, it is not terribly well-equipped and it has a long history of utter disaster when facing Israeli forces. Syria likely wants this to remain a proxy war. If Syria does get involved, it is a huge problem for Israel, because there is both the need to defend Golan, and the need to prevent Israeli troops in Lebanon from being flanked. But the biggest threat would be from Syrian chemical weapons, which could devastate Israel's civilian population. Of course, that would lead to an Israeli nuclear devastation of Syria, so hopefully Syria's leaders are sane enough not to go that far in aiding their Hizb'allah proxies.

The Iranians, other than the couple of hundred Pasdaran who are working with Hizb'allah in Lebanon, is too far away to intervene directly. (I count the Pasdaran as essentially Hizb'allah — or Hizb'allah as essentially Pasdaran, I suppose — and so include them above as integral to Hizb'allah's well-trained troops.) The one way the Iranians could become involved is by long-range missile strikes. Since this would, again, lead to an Israeli nuclear response, I don't think Iran is insane enough for that. They're happy to let Hizb'allah and Syria take the blows while Iran keeps working to get their nuclear program completed. Then, all bets are off, but that's not (hopefully) yet.

Terrain/Weather

Weather is not an issue this time of year.

The terrain is very favorable to the defender. The area north from the Israel-Lebanon border is extraordinarily hilly, rising to the Lebanon Mountains towards the Mediterranean coast, and the Anti-Lebanon Mountains on the border with Syria. Between these is the Beka'a Valley, the enemy's rear area in Lebanon (the enemy's strategic rear is in Syria).

The Litani River runs through the Beka'a, then turns West for the sea some 40km North of the Israel-Lebanon border. A number of smaller, generally seasonal rivers run East-West from the Lebanon Mountains down towards the Mediterranean.

The road net is somewhat underdeveloped except along the coast.

Troops

The Israeli military is large, with over 100,000 ground forces alone, plus perhaps half a million reserves. Israel began mobilizing its reserves several days ago, and recently called up significantly more (Fox said 5000 or more) troops. Israel cannot call up reserves for any length of time without hurting their economy, so they only do it in very limited conditions, when war is impending and will be big. The number of callups is still relatively small; my expectation is that they will grow as Israel commits to action, because Israel can operate for sufficient time on its regular forces to get the reserves into action.

Israel's troops are among the best trained and most competent in the world. They have never lost a war, and even when they lose battles, it is at high cost to their enemies. The Israeli army is stupendously well equipped, with natively built assault rifles and tanks, and significant imported arms of all kinds (mostly from the US).

Israel has probably the second-best air force in the world, trailing only the United States. Their equipment is numerous, capable and well-maintained. Their pilots are well trained and very, very good. (The last Israeli war saw an exchange rate of 80 enemy aircraft destroyed in the air for one Israeli aircraft, and that one was destroyed by ground fire.)

The Israeli navy is small, with 3 submarines, 3 corvettes, a dozen or so small missile boats, and a number of patrol craft. It is sufficient to blockade Lebanon and insert commandos, but insufficient for large-scale operations of any kind.

Time

The callup of reserves limits Israel's time horizon, and the more troops called up, the more this is true. Israeli reserves are otherwise known as civilians, and Israel only has about 5 million total civilians, including children and the elderly. Imagine the US economy if 30 million citizens were put under arms!

The second internal limit on Israel's time is munitions stockpiles. Israel has a limited number of smart bombs, for instance, and has to keep some in reserve should Syria get restless on being left out of the fight. This limits the way the Israeli's fight in a way that the US does not face, and means that Israel cannot trade bombs for their soldiers' lives as easily as we can. Israel will have to keep major combat operations within a span of perhaps 2 months to avoid running down their stockpiles, unless the US is flying in resupply (which we may well be doing). UPDATE: we are.)

The third internal limit on Israel's time is their public's aversion to even enemy civilian casualties. While the public is firmly behind the military actions for now, this won't last for more than a few months before the pictures of enemy dead begin to weigh on Israeli consciences.

The final limit on Israeli staying time is support from the US. As long as we support Israel, they can continue to operate in the face of everyone else's condemnation (they are used to it), but Israel depends on US support for a great deal, and will not jeopardize that. Right now, that limit looks to be in the far future, as President Bush appears glad that it's not us having to fight this fight.

So What Will Israel Do?

Who knows?

But if I were in charge, I would put six brigades (armor heavy) in the Bekaa, three on either side of the Litani, and drive North to cut off any possible Syrian assistance. Meanwhile, I would use another six or so brigades to take Lebanon up to the Litani in the West. I don't think Israel has the structure to cut off Hizb'allah's retreat, so they would instead be pushed towards Beirut (as the PLO was during the 1982 war), likely bringing down the Lebanese government, which Israel would not want. To prevent this, I would strongly consider landing troops south of Beirut by sea, in order to cut coastal movement and force Hizb'allah to stand and fight, at least in the West.

The idea would be to destroy Hizb'allah's military capability by killing their best fighters (who would likely stand and fight in the South), destroying their long-range rockets and missiles, and uncovering and destroying their bunkers. Then pull out: Israel is not ready for a long occupation.

Best case for this would be a 10 day operation. More likely would be a couple of weeks. Worst case (assuming no Syrian intervention, and Hizb'allah breaks within the first week) would be 3 months.

In my judgement, such as it is, Israel could sustain such a campaign with sufficient reserves to counter any other country (or the Palestinians) getting involved.

The key in the long term, though, is not military but political: someone has to control southern Lebanon to keep Hizb'allah out. While Israel could create a DMZ by fire, I don't think they want to have that on their shoulders. More likely would be a deal with Lebanon to come in and take over, backed by a threat to repeat if they let Hizb'allah infiltrate.

Will it work? No clue, but everything else short of annihilation or bringing in the US military has been tried.

Posted by jeff at July 22, 2006 12:16 AM

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Comments

Posted by: M. Simon at July 22, 2006 12:23 PM

Posted by: M. Simon at July 22, 2006 12:33 PM

Posted by: MamaLynx at July 22, 2006 2:57 PM

Posted by: Jeff Medcalf at July 22, 2006 2:59 PM