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March 7, 2006
The World's Problems
The most important, and among the least understood, fact about the world today is this: there are no remaining sanctuaries for anyone.
Religious sites give no sanctuary.
Oceans give no sanctuary.
Appeasement gives no sanctuary.
Strength alone gives no sanctuary.
Weakness gives no sanctuary.
Isolation gives no sanctuary.
Local law and custom give no sanctuary.
Absence of war between nations gives no sanctuary.
There are no sanctuaries in the world today. Any place which is not democratic (in the modern Western sense), peaceful, modern and secular spills violence and death outwards and inwards. The most obvious and apparent source of this violence and death is jihadism, particularly when coupled with other forms of nihilism, but it is not the only source. A look at Zimbabwe, Venezuela or Myanmar will quickly dispel any such notion.
This raises questions whose possible answers are so frightening that many people refuse to ask them, or to countenance others asking them. Is it possible to have peace anywhere in the world, let alone everywhere, on an ongoing basis? Is it possible to have peace without genocide? Both peace and meaningful freedom? Both peace and prosperity? Is it possible for Western cultures, and Westernized cultures like Japan or Korea, to survive in the face of terrorism, nuclear proliferation, resentment both of Western success and Western attempts to spread that success? Is it possible for other cultures to survive the competition from Western cultures? The evidence is all over the place, but the overall picture is not encouraging. It is becoming apparent that Western cultures cannot tolerate disorder and violence anywhere, and that Islamist culture cannot tolerate anything but its own hegemony. It seems likely that either Western culture or Islamist culture will take over the world: each is maximal and each is proselytizing and each is convinced that it is the best way. Each also has those among its opposite who feel that their own culture is immoral, and willing to work against their own culture's ascendency.
It is very possible — perhaps even likely — that the world will soon come to a tipping point, when the liberal West collectively catches its breath and decides that this really is a culture war we are in, and we must fight tyranny or die, and our ideals with us. I believe that the jihadis, from their own statements, decided more than a decade ago that this is a culture war, and that they are doing their level best to convince other Muslims, and particularly Sunni Arabs, that this is the case, and that Muslims must fight the West or die, and their god with them. They might succeed.
I have been thinking a lot over the past few years about what happens if we pass that tipping point, and I hate all the answers I've had. But I've had a new idea recently, and idea that I don't hate and that might work, and I want to talk about that. But not just yet. I don't have a lot of time at the moment to flesh out the idea, and there is a lot of recent background reading that led me down this path. So instead of presenting my ideas at the moment, I would like to present their foundations:
The Pentagon's New Map by Thomas Barnett
From Way Up Here by Dave Schuler
Exit Zero on the Real War by Mary Madigan
The Breach by New Sysiphus
"Long War" is Breaking Down into Tedium by Mark Steyn
A Not Entirely Crazy Idea by Michael Reynolds [actually, it is a pretty crazy idea, but it did get me thinking]
Neo-Cons or Crusaders? by Callimachus
The World: Not Going Away by Michael Reynolds
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