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September 26, 2005

The Perils of Not Reading History

Mark Safranski of ZenPundit notes a RAND analyst's testimony before Congress on Chinese asymmetrical warfare doctrine. Since I lived in Taiwan for four years, and remember it fondly, I've always taken an interest in the Chinese approach to Taiwan. (This is also an area that, it would be remiss to neglect, Brian J. Dunn covers extensively.)

China's current thinking is somewhat disturbing, in the same sense that watching an approaching trainwreck is somewhat disturbing. It's apparent that the Chinese have neglected some basic history:

If China waits for a militarily superior adversary to commence hostilities, it will be difficult for China to seize the initiative and the adversary will likely have the preponderance of forces as well. If, by contrast, China initiates a conflict before an adversary attacks, China can seize the initiative and may also enjoy an initial advantage in the local balance of forces. Finally, preemption greatly increases the chances of successfully achieving surprise. In the context of a conflict between the United States and China, the value accorded to preemption in Chinese military doctrinal writings suggests that, on the presumption that the United States will inevitability intervene in a conflict with Taiwan, China might initiate hostilities by first attacking U.S. forces in the region, even before it has attacked Taiwan.

Moreover:

At least some Chinese military analysts believe that the United States is sensitive to casualties and economic costs and that the sudden destruction of a significant portion of our forces would result in a severe psychological shock and a loss of will to continue the conflict. [This] suggests a belief that a preemptive surprise attack on U.S. forces in the Pacific theater could cause the United States to avoid further combat with China.

I was going to say something snarky here about remembering the past or being doomed to repeat it, but I'll let Roger Cliff (the RAND analyst) have the say on that:

It does not need to be pointed out to this panel that the last time such a strategy was attempted in the Pacific the ultimate results were not altogether favorable for the country that tried it, but the Chinese military doctrinal writings we examined in this study did not acknowledge the existence of such historical counterexamples.

But that's not the only counterexample. Consider, for example, the attack of 9/11. That attack was compared immediately to the Pearl Harbor attack, both in its destructiveness and in its effect upon the nation. Even in our current cultural daze, with the ex-hippies (and sometimes not so ex-) largely in charge of society, the 9/11 attack was enough to get the United States to overthrow not only the government most responsible for the 9/11 attack, but also another that was strategically convenient. It would be, um, unwise for the Chinese to think that a preemptive attack on the United States would be met with a collapse of American will. Indeed, I can think of nothing China could do that would more enrage the US than, say, sinking a carrier off of Japan; or destroying the airbase at Guam; or using submarines to block the entrances to Pearl Harbor, Yokosuka, and the Panama Canal; or attacking those bases outright to eliminate their logistical and communications utility. China would get less reaction from the US by just attacking Taiwan directly, which is something the US will not stand for. But if China attacked Taiwan directly, we would be likely to stop with throwing back the invasion/attack and bottling up China until it stops fighting. Were China to preemptively attack the Pacific Fleet, I believe that the United States would not stop until the rightful Chinese government was restored to rule over all of its rebellious mainland provinces. Or until the Chinese mainland was a smoking heap of largely-depopulated ash, should China wish to be particularly stupid and destructive.

Yet that appears to be what China is considering:

[A RAND] analysis of Chinese military doctrinal writings identified a number of specific tactics that could affect the ability of the United States to deploy and maintain forces in the Western Pacific in the event of a conflict with China. These tactics include attacks on air bases; aircraft carriers; command, communications, information, surveillance, and reconnaissance systems and facilities; and logistics, transportation, and support facilities.

I really hope that the Chinese strategists read up on the history of American reaction to surprise attacks before attempting such a strategy. China has an old and often beautiful culture, and it would be a shame to have it survive only in American Chinatowns.

Posted by jeff at September 26, 2005 12:48 PM

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Comments

Posted by: mark safranski at September 26, 2005 11:26 PM

Posted by: Jay Tea at September 28, 2005 3:13 AM

Posted by: Jeff Medcalf at September 28, 2005 7:28 AM