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August 17, 2005
The Problem of Iran
Wretchard has an interesting post, containing a translation of an Iranian nuclear official's take on their negotiations with the EU. Short form: it bought them time. In other words, just as the center-right has been arguing, Iran is using the negotiations to further their nuclear program, in much the same way that North Korea did. OK, fair enough, but what do we do about it? The Bush administration has utterly failed to prepare the US for a large-scale war, both domestically and (critically) militarily. We simply don't have an army large enough to occupy both Iraq and Iran without breaking the army completely within 2-3 years. And since that's not acceptable - it's not like the terrorists are going to give us a holiday - and since we are running out of time to deal with Iran before they obtain nuclear capability, we are left with quite the conundrum. Wretchard ends with this:
[V]irtually no Western politician can ever use force again to prevent a regime, even one openly dedicated to terrorism, from acquiring weapons of mass destruction. The subject is verboten because the Left has declared it so.
Not so. We have repeatedly seen that the voices telling us this or that is impossible or cannot be done politically are constant, and appear around every problem. The voices whisper despair, while shouting courage; they whisper failure, while shouting progress. But their only power comes from being listened to. When a politician does not listen to the voices, and George Bush has repeatedly demonstrated his deafness to the counsels of despair and failure, he is free to take action, and is generally supported by the public.
Wretchard's commenter wildmonk said:
[A] preemptive invasion of Iran to deny it nuclear weapons is fraught with great philosophical peril. It can be justified in one and only one way: America would have to overtly arrogate unto itself the right to be the final arbiter of other nations' actions. This would represent an unprecedented seizure of the international agenda and discard any remaining pretenses that we live in the age of Liberal Internationalism. Indeed, our entire postwar order - including the moral authority of the UN - would have to be discarded.
I don't think an invasion is possible, because we would need an army the size of the one we had in 1991 to pull it off while still occupying Iraq. But that does not mean action is impossible. While regime change in Iran is an eventual requirement, it is not an immediate requirement. We could bomb the Iranian nuclear program into oblivion - or near oblivion - despite the buried facilities, and in the process destroy much of Iran's military and shared-purpose infrastructure. The Navy and Air Force could do this with some difficulty and time required - and losses almost certain.
Iran would react, most likely by attacking Arab states (particularly the Gulf states) that support the US with missile bombardment, but this reaction would be dwarfed by the American force that could be applied to Iran. On top of that, Iran is constrained from using its ground forces to attack us overtly in Iraq because that would bring a US invasion (sadly, requiring a complete mobilization of the Guard and Reserves, but we'd do it under those circumstances). So whether we would simply neuter Iran, or whether the regime's opponents would rise up in reaction to the attack and take down the Mullahs, either way we can push the problem down the road, until we have the capacity to solve it permanently.
UPDATES: See also Time Magazine and IMRA. Hat tips for both to Colt at Winds of Change.
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Comments
I think it is also worth noting that the need to confront Iran over its nuclear ambitions, given its overt hostility to the West and its unfailing support for various terror movements, would be altogether easier if our actions in Afghanistan and Iraq were marginally successful, thus applying further pressure on Iran, and more localized positive reenforcement for a more secular and less hostile regime in the aftermath of any military actions we take there. One way or another, we will have to confront the impending Iranian nuclear threat and defeat it, or ultimately surrender our sovereignty and and that of the rest of the West, to Islam. It is patently, suicidal foolishness to think otherwise.
Posted by: Bat One at August 17, 2005 11:46 PM
Yes, absolutely. I think we've done remarkably well in Afghanistan, and I think we are doing well in Iraq. But the perception is that we are doing poorly in Iraq, and that perception will constrain public opinion. It seems to me that it will be 12-18 months before we're so far along in Iraq that the progress in undeniable, and that will probably be the time to hit Iran if they have not backed down sooner. The problem, of course, is that we don't know if that's waiting too long from the standpoint of their nuclear program, and we do know that Iran and Syria are interfering in Iraq now.
Were I the President, I'd be seriously tempted to announce that since Syria and Iran are violating Iraq's borders to interfere in the war, the US will similarly refuse to use those borders as demarcation lines, and will attack any Iranian or Iraqi facilities, units or personnel interfering in Iraq, or supporting the terrorists or insurgents in Iraq. Further, if interference continued past that point, I would consider blockading Iran and possibly Syria. If they want to fight, let's fight. If we can't invade immediately, we can still hurt them quite badly.
Posted by: Jeff Medcalf
at August 18, 2005 8:51 AM
You're on the right track, Jeff. The solutions to both the Iran and North Korea situation are similar. First, neighbors like Israel in the case of Iran and Japan in the case of NK need robust missile defense. We're not talking about defense against hundreds of missiles from the Soviet Union here. We're talking about defense against a half dozen or so missiles and that sounds doable to me.
Then we need to do serious interdiction and searching of departing naval and air traffic from both places. Blockade? Maybe not necessary. But we need to know that they're not exporting nuclear or missile technology.
Neither they nor our alleged allies will like the situation much but we have a distinct lack of non-violent alternatives and this is the least violent solution that I can come up with.
Posted by: Dave Schuler
at August 18, 2005 10:16 AM
Dave, the idea behind a blockade was not to prevent nuclear export (they could do that overland through Pakistan or Russia), but to cripple the Iranian economy, making revolution more likely.
I do concur on the robust missile defense, and we should be prepared to provide it to our regional allies along with training and other support, if not for free than for a marginal cost.
Posted by: Jeff Medcalf
at August 18, 2005 12:50 PM
Speaking of Syria, I have long been of the opinion that some selective US SpecOps incursions into the Bekaa Valley are long overdue. Not to mention the fact that a thorough cleansing there would probably do more than just about anything else to improve the security situation both in Iraq and Israel.
I would hazard a guess that Syria garners quite nearly as much commercial revenue through that Valley as it does any other venue. Disrupting the smugglers and heroin processors, and cut off the Syrian cash flow, not to mention the terrorist camps there, and Syria either falls in line as did Libya, or the boy optometrist heads to Geneva for a brand new, life-long prescription.
Posted by: Bat One at August 18, 2005 7:05 PM


