« Gotchya | Main | Gulag? Not Quite »
June 2, 2005
Road Map and Wall Blueprint
Scott at Powerline notes an interview by outgoing Israeli Defense Forces head Ya'alon with Ha'aretz. Ya'alon is convinced that the Palestinians intend to restart the terror war against Israel as soon as Israel stops withdrawing, whether that's after the Israeli pullout from Gaza, or at some later time. Scott ends with "In any event, it seems fair to ask where precisely this road map is leading."
Well, here is where it seems to be leading: the Israelis will pull completely out of Gaza, even turning over border security between Egypt and Gaza. At this point, it is quite likely that freedom of movement will be ended - not just remain restricted - between Gaza and Israel. Israel will pull out (perhaps in another year) from the West Bank as well, presumably abandoning the Jordan/West Bank border to Jordan. Freedom of movement will be ended across that wall as well. The walls around Gaza and the West Bank will become de facto borders of Israel.
This will drive the Palestinians nuts, thinking they are on the verge of victory and simultaneously angry about not being able to work in Israel, and they will launch attacks over the walls with rockets and mortar bombs and artillery (if they can get it). The Israelis will respond.
Meanwhile, the Europeans will be going nuts - how dare Israel impose the unilateral solution of ending freedom of movement between the poor Palestinian families divided by the wall? - and the war will continue. But it will look more like the artillery war that preceded the Six Day War than like the terror wars of the last 15 years.
If the Palestinians are too aggressive or very unlucky, the response to the coming artillery war may be the same as the response to the last one, and I suspect that the Israelis, if they had to reinvade the West Bank and Gaza, would drive the Palestinians out completely, into Jordan and Egypt. Israel is not prepared to countenance a resumption of occupation - and occupation is always about the people, not the land.
Sadly, I don't think that the Palestinians are prepared to stop short of the line that will cause just that outcome. They almost seem to be begging for destruction or being forced out.
Trackback Pings
TrackBack URL for this entry:
http://www.caerdroia.org/MT/mt-tb.cgi/90
Listed below are links to weblogs that reference Road Map and Wall Blueprint:
» Destruction of Israel? from Capital Region People
Haaretz muses about the fates of Israelis and Palestinians in an editorial in today's online edition, which gets blog attention from Scott at Powerline and Caerdroia. That "Late Great Planet Earth" guy, Hal Lindsey, has come out blasting President Ge... [Read More]
Tracked on June 2, 2005 8:41 PM