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June 12, 2005
Bolivia Falling into Ruin
Bolivia is falling into ruin. Sadly, it seems as though this will end up in a civil war, and it seems from other things I've pieced together over time that this crisis is largely being instigated by Hugo Chavez, Venezuela's "one man, one vote, one time" dictator. I doubt that the US or the UN will get involved, and Brazil is apparently going to stay out of it, so it looks like the situation will come down to who controls the Army and Police. If those institutions answer to the political leadership, then there will be a (likely long) civil war against Morales' insurgents with Venezuelan backing. If not, then there will likely be a very short and bloody overthrow of the government, followed by a long and bloody communization effort.
UPDATE: Man, some days. I originally had this as Ecuador, and indeed meant Bolivia. While I was typing this, I was thinking about a fraternity brother from Ecuador, and my brain was handily mistyping what I was thinking about instead of what I was saying. Sorry about that.
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Comments
Bolivia, don't you mean?
Posted by: Joel at June 13, 2005 4:18 AM