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May 26, 2005
Good News on Iraq
Given that Juan Cole, professor of history at the University of Michigan, has a history (no pun intended) of being about 150 degrees off on his predictions and analysis (at least, so far as anything concerning the Bush administration goes), this is very good news:
Therefore, I conclude that the United States is stuck in Iraq for the medium term, and perhaps for the long term. The guerrilla war is likely to go on a decade to 15 years. Given the basic facts, of capable, trained and numerous guerrillas, public support for them from Sunnis, access to funding and munitions, increasing civil turmoil, and a relatively small and culturally poorly equipped US military force opposing them, led by a poorly informed and strategically clueless commander-in-chief who has made himself internationally unpopular, there is no near-term solution.
We may not be there (at least, in an active combat role) nearly as long as I'd thought.
(hat tip: The Glittering Eye)
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