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June 14, 2003
France
Note: this is a post recovered from my old blog, before it died of an insufficient backup. Any comments/trackbacks on it have not been brought over, but can be seen with the original. The date is that of the original posting.
I was going to link to all of Steven Den Beste's recent articles on France, but Winds of Change has saved me the effort, as well as adding some additional information. In additon to these, the Dissident Frogman and Merde in France have additional (and ongoing) information, and Innocents Abroad also has frequent information.
What is happening in France is scary. I do not believe that France is on the verge of collapse. Rather, I believe that one of two scenarios is likely: either France will decline (relative to the rest of the liberal democracies) over the next 20 years, leading to a series of increasingly-appalling crises and possibly concluing in a civil war between the native-born French and the unassimilated Muslims; or France will actually convince Europe to go along with the EU superstate concept, which will drag all of Europe into the French crisis, but at a slower pace. Demographics is destiny, and the piper will be paid.
Slightly less likely than either of these two outcomes is the possibility of a revolution and formation of a new Republic, some time in the next dozen years or so. While this would be violent, it would be on the order of massive strikes and the associated intimidation and beatings, rather than outright civil warfare. France has done this repeatedly, and there is a deep revolutionary character in France. If this happens, the most likely outcome is a radical socialist (not social democratic) regime with an aggressive foreign policy and a domestic policy towards Jews, Muslims and other minorities resembling fascism more than liberal democracy. In actual fact, such a government would, even if it allowed large amounts of personal freedom for the native French, rapidly deteriorate into nationalism and tyranny. Please note that this would be without doubt a popular and populist revolution, and the resulting government would be fully legitimate in every meaningful sense. I'm not suggesting an insurrection fomented by outside powers, here.
The third outcome I can see happening in France is less likely, but would be more immediate. It is certainly possible that the EU could collapse as an attempt to form a superstate, reverting to a mostly-economic arrangement. It is also possible that the resulting loss of face for France, as well as loss of superpower-level influence, would cause the French voters to turn out the government and bring in Le Pen or a similar nationalist. Such a government would almost certainly attempt to bust the most powerful unions, which would most likely lead to the revolution and institution of outright socialism described above. However, it is possible that the nationalists would be successful in breaking the power of the trade unions. If that were to happen, and then the French were to turn out the nationalists for a social democratic government, and that government were willing to attempt to assimilate the Muslims at the same time they were reducing the welfare state, it is possible that France could come through without the massive dislocations described above.
The other thing that I keep thinking, reading about the trade unions in France, is how glad I am that Reagan broke up the air traffic controllers strike in the early 1980s. Had he caved, the results would have been catastrophic in the long-term.
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