| A strange loop.
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| A strange loop.
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Election ProjectionOK, here are my guesses for the election. (Or, here is where I show how bad I am at predicting US elections - we'll decide after 11/2.)
The Republicans will gain 5-10 net seats in the House, mostly in Texas.
The Republicans will gain 2 net seats in the Senate.
George Bush will win the election with at least 52%, but certainly not more than 58%, of the popular vote, and will decisively win the electoral college, probably taking at least 360 electors.
When I have more time, I'll explain my reasoning for these projections.
Posted by Jeff at August 4, 2004 08:03 AM | Link CosmosInteresting. Without closely analyzing things, just using my gut, I've been more optimistic about the legislature and less about the executive.
As of now, I would say Republicans pick up 10-15 in the House, 3-4 in the Senate, while Bush wins with over 50% (which is higher than most are willing to give him), 51-52% my guess, Kerry about 45-46%. I think the electoral vote will be close. Right now I'd say 291-247; it may be even closer. But worst case I can see is 274-264 Bush.
Posted by: Brian on August 4, 2004 06:55 PMThe Wisconsin Senate race will be uncallable until sometime after the primary, which is something of a purity versus electability contest. All told I expect the state to show a much more conservative leaning in 2004 than it did in 2000 (unless the DNC buys a lot more votes this time).
