Crisis; What Crisis?
I have been thinking lately about the various crises brewing in the world, and figured I'd list them so I could get a better handle on what is happening. So here is a list of crises I see in progress or impending, ranked by a combination of the risk level and time frame and current commitment of the US:
| Crisis | Severity | Time Frame | Big Risk(s)
|
|---|
| Iraq | Medium | immediate | US withdrawal precipitates anarchy, eventual Islamic republic and resumption of state support of terrorism
|
| Iran | High | 1-10 years | nuclear proliferation; hosting and funding of terrorists; financing and aiding insurrection in Iraq and regional factions in Afghanistan
|
| nuclear proliferation to rogue states | High | 1-5 years | failure to dismantle A.Q. Khan's network could lead to nuclear weapons in the hands of terrorist groups and an attack on a Western city (likely Israeli or US, possibly British or French)
|
| Venezuela | Medium | a few months to 2 years | Marxist takeover leads to terrorist support, or civil war, or both
|
| Pakistan - tribal areas | Medium | immediate | failure to clean out Taliban remnants and jihadist groups leads to ongoing instability in Pakistan and Afghanistan
|
| N Korea | Medium | 2-10 years | nuclear proliferation; internal collapse precipitating conflict between S Korea and China; attack on S Korea to prevent internal collapse
|
| Saudi financing of terrorist groups | Medium | immediate | not only allows cross-border terrorist groups to operate, but provides them with ongoing source of recruits
|
| Syria | Medium | immediate | financing and hosting of terrorist groups; funding and aiding insurrection in Iraq
|
| Europe | Medium | 30-50 years | demographic collapse combined with influx of unassimilated Muslims could result in civil war
|
| Israel/Pakistan | Low | 1-3 years | risk of Palestinian civil war/terrorism provoking harsh Israeli response
|
| Afghanistan | Low | immediate | failure of central government to gain control over all regions, leading to eventual ability of jihadist groups to regain control
|
| Egypt | Low | 3-15 years | risk of Islamist takeover
|
| Pakistan | Low | 1-15 years | risk of Islamist takeover
|
| SE Asia | Low | immediate | various terrorist groups operating throughout the area (particularly Philippines and Indonesia)
|
I'd be interested in others' takes on this list and its details. Also, what am I missing?
Posted by Jeff at March 8, 2004 11:52 AM | Link Cosmos
